Zhongzhi shares (600038): Three quarterly reports exceed the expected helicopter development into an accelerated period
Event: The company released the third quarter report of 2019, and the company achieved revenue of 105 from January to September.
28 ppm, an increase of 28 in ten years.
63%; net profit attributable to mothers4.
500,000 yuan, an increase of 32 in ten years.
Main point of view: The aviation equipment boom cycle has helped the company’s performance significantly improve.
The company achieved revenue of 36 in the third quarter.
28 ppm, an increase of 28 in ten years.
39%, achieving net profit1.
63 ppm, an increase of 27 in ten years.
43%, maintaining a good growth rate since the second quarter.
The company’s third quarterly report showed a marked improvement in cash flow and an improvement in its inventory. Among them, the increase in cash received from sales of goods and provision of labor services.
83%, which can directly correspond to the company’s delivery of helicopter products. At the same time, the increase in inventory also means that the company’s production has expanded. The double rise of indicators fully indicates that the company’s products are in the boom cycle.
We believe this is mainly due to the double increase in the company’s helicopter orders and deliveries.
The end of the current military reform + mid-to-late period of the 13th Five-Year Plan, compensation orders and five-year plan indicators provide double guarantees for the company’s performance, so that the company can continue to maintain its growth rate.
Until the demand is large, the company’s mid-to-long-term performance is worry-free.
The latest equipment straight 20 technology is advanced, and the platform-type positioning has become a universal “million dollar” for the three armed services.
The number of benchmarked US Black Hawk helicopters in military helicopters accounts for about 35%. Considering the increase in the number of non-linear helicopters and the incomplete pedigree, as a general-purpose helicopter of the three armed forces, the number of equipment for the straight 20 should exceed 1,000, press 1.
The 4 trillion unit price market space is 1,400 trillion, accounting for more than 45% of all military helicopter gaps.
Recently, the navy version of the Zhi-20 has also been tested on the ship. At the same time, we judge that the aligned turbo-10 engine is mature and the service of the Zhi-20. The two major north-south helicopter manufacturing bases of AVIC are about to be built to solve the capacity problem of the Zhi-20.
In the medium and long term, just 20 helicopters have laid the foundation for the company’s performance.
The specific details of the equipment pricing reform are in place, and the improvement in gross profit margin and the value of the difference must be expected.
On October 24, the “Administrative Measures on the Single-source Procurement Price Appraisal of the Armed Forces” was promulgated, which focused on clarifying the methods, procedures and contents of single-source procurement price appraisal. Combining with the actual situation of military procurement work, it includes manufacturing costs, direct materials, direct labor, and manufacturing costs, Special expenses, expense allocation, period expenses, management expenses, financial expenses and other aspects of the main audit content and method specifications.
As a OEM, the company’s profitability has been affected by the pricing mechanism for a long time. The introduction of the “Administrative Measures” may mark that the reform of the pricing mechanism has officially landed in the entire army. The highest 5% profit will be released, and the company’s gross profit level will be significantly improved.
At the same time, the market should pay attention to the company’s follow-up equipment to make up for the difference swap. Through the finalization of equipment and continuous installation, some models based on preliminary pricing and settlement in the early stage will gradually enter the price review and compensation, which will also create ample profit space for the company.
上海夜网论坛 Investment advice: do we predict the company in 2019?
In 2021, the company’s revenue will be 16.3 billion, 21.2 trillion and 27.9 billion, and its net profit will be 6.
500 million, 8.
600 million and 11.
0 million yuan, EPS is 1.
09 yuan, 1.
45 yuan, 1.
86 yuan, corresponding PE is 39X, 30X, 23X.
Maintain the “Highly Recommended” rating.
Risk Warning: The progress of capacity expansion is less than expected.